Huatai Securities Luo Yi liquidity steady tone unchanged focus on banking sector opportunities-easeljs

Huatai Securities Luo Yi: liquidity steady tone unchanged focus on banking sector opportunities Sina App: Live on-line blogger to guide the purchase of new shares: the stock market is the most simple way to pick up the money from the public, WeChat chief analyst Luo Yi forecast September added about 8000-9500 billion credit and social financing scale of about 1 trillion and 400 billion by survey estimates, forecasts for September add about 8000-9500 billion yuan, the specific credit structure: large commercial banks about 2000-2500 billion yuan, the joint-stock commercial banks of about 2000-3000 billion yuan, policy banks and postal savings of about 100 billion yuan, city commercial banks and rural financial institutions about 300 billion yuan. About 300 billion of the issued corporate bonds and corporate bonds were disclosed by the end of September 29th, accounting for about 90 billion of equity financing, accounting for about 1 trillion and 400 billion in September. In the credit characteristics: the person is still on the residents of the mortgage loans, year on year growth is expected to slow down, loans to the public two to put the focus of government financing platforms and real estate. The decline of bank risk preference makes it more emphasis on government related and land and housing mortgage projects when the loan is put into use. Monthly new steady, or for the first three quarters of the new quarter of September the lowest local bond issuance fell, about 280 billion yuan, as of August 1/3, this month to offset the replacement of local debt credit function decline. Therefore, even if the local debt replacement is added, the new credit will be steady in September. According to the September forecast data, the new credit is expected to be about 2 trillion and 300 billion in the three quarter, which is the lowest value in the first three quarters. At the end of the quarter MPA assessment, or become an important factor affecting the bank credit, credit banks face generalized rapid tightening pressure, the three quarter of the overall pace of credit control, for the four quarter of the broad credit growth standards set aside enough space. The main tone of steady flow unchanged, is expected to gradually return to the rational adverse current is a critical period of deepening reform at home and abroad and the supply side of the game, liquidity mainly sound the same tone. Bank shares greater excess returns since February, reflecting the capital market preferences are changing from stock transfer to real growth following speculation real value of big financial stocks. Under the background of liquidity stability, the value of bank shares allocation highlights. Worries about NPL ratio limit the valuation of bank shares. Duocuobingju bad growth is expected to be suppressed. Blocking upstream, debt replacement digestion recessive bad; sparse downstream, write off efforts to increase, local AMC expansion, bad ABS landing, debt swap restart. In fact, bank shares and adverse and non-linear correlation, the investment value is not determined by the quality of the basic financial, but by the expected breakthrough and determines, prudent operation and actively reform the bank is expected to take the lead in the market is expected to break through. The incremental funds layout approach, focus on banking sector opportunities from just the disclosure of bank semi annual report can be observed, four large capital aggressively holdings of bank shares, shareholders, venture capital, the central enterprises, local financial holding etc.. The logic of large capital investment banks is very clear: the value of bank licenses, valuation is at a low level, have a significant impact on the accounting of equity law

华泰证券罗毅:流动性稳健基调不变 重点关注银行板块机会 新浪财经App:直播上线 博主一对一指导 新股申购:股市最简单捡钱方式   转自微信公众号 罗毅首席分析师   预测9月新增信贷约8000-9500亿元,社会融资规模约1.4万亿   通过调研测算,预测9月新增信贷约8000-9500亿元,具体结构:大型商业银行约2000-2500亿元,股份制商业银行约2000-3000亿元,政策性银行及邮储约1000亿元,城商行及农村金融机构约3000亿元。参考截止9月29日披露的发行公司债及企业债约3000亿,股权融资约900亿,估测9月社融规模约为1.4万亿。在信贷投放特点上:个人投放仍是居民按揭贷款,同比增速预计有所放缓,对公贷款两大投放重点为政府融资平台与房地产。银行风险偏好的下降使得其在贷款投放时对与政府相关及土地房产抵押充足的项目更为偏重。   月度新增保持稳健,季度新增或为前三季度最低   9月地方债券发行有所回落,约2800亿元,为8月三分之一左右,本月地方债务置换对信贷冲减作用下降。因此,即使加回地方债务置换,9月新增信贷也为稳健水平。按照9月预测数据,三季度预计新增信贷为2.3万亿左右,为前三季度最低值。季度末MPA考核在即,或成为影响银行信贷投放的重要因素,广义信贷投放较快的银行面临收紧压力,三季度控制信贷投放整体节奏,为四季度广义信贷增速达标留出充足空间。   流动性稳健主基调不变,不良预期逐步理性回归   当前是供给侧改革深化和海内外博弈的关键时期,流动性以稳健为主基调不变。银行股从2月以来取得较大的超额收益,反映出市场资金的偏好正在发生变化,从追捧炒作股票转移到真成长真价值的大金融股。流动性稳健背景下,银行股配置价值凸显。对不良率的担忧制约银行股估值修复。多措并举下不良增速有望得到抑制。堵上游,债务置换消化隐性不良;疏下游,核销力度加大,地方AMC扩容,不良ABS落地,债转股重启。其实,银行股价与不良并非线性相关,投资价值不是由当前财务基本面的优劣决定,而是由预期的突破与否决定,审慎经营并积极改革的银行有望率先突破市场预期。   增量大资金布局进场,重点关注银行板块机会   从刚披露的银行半年报可观察到,四方面大资本正大举增持银行股,股东、险资、央企、地方金控等。大资金投资银行的逻辑十分清晰:银行牌照价值、估值处于低位、产生重大影响进行权益法核算(银行具有高ROE)、稳定的高股息回报。因此,预计未来还会有大资金不断布局银行股,增量资金入场将催化板块行情。同时,银行多样化不良处置架构逐步形成,市场对于银行不良的预期逐渐回归理性。银行股迎来布局良机。   推荐积极推市场化改革转型的银行标的   北京银行(城商行龙头,区位优势强)、宁波银行(资产结构调整,大零售)、华夏银行(混改标杆、事业部改革)、民生银行(民营标杆,信用卡分拆)、招商银行(一体两翼、轻型银行战略)。   风险提示:资产质量恶化超预期。 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

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